NJ Election 2025 – What to Look For

November 3, 2025

by Eric DeGesero, EDGE Consulting

On Tuesday November 4, 2025, New Jersey will elect a new Governor. Republican Jack Ciatrtarelli, the party’s 2021 nominee, is running against Democrat Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill.  Incumbent Governor Phil Murphy is constitutionally prohibited from seeking a third successive term.

The race has been close and competitive since the time each candidate easily secured their party’s nomination in June. Public polling has shown the race close and gap closing as voting ends on Election Day, but Mikie Sherrill has been ahead in all. New Jersey’s voter registration is 2.5 million Democrats, 2.3 million unaffiliated, and 1.6 million Republican. Since 2017 there are 35% more registered Republicans and 20% more registered Democrats.

In 2021 Phil Murphy was the first Democrat to win successive terms since Brendan Byrne in 1977. If Sherrill were to win, she would be the first candidate to win the office for the same party three times in a row since Democrat Dick Hughes won the 1961 election succeeding term-limited Robert Meyner.

Christie Todd Whitman won the Governor’s Office twice and Chris Christie won his first term with less than 50% of the vote. They were the last two Republican governors, both two-term.

In addition to the Governor’s Office, all 80 seats in the NJ General Assembly are on the ballot. The Democrats control the NJ General Assembly 52-28. The NJ Senate is not on the ballot, save for one special election whose outcome is not in doubt, this year. Senate control is up again in 2027. Democrats control the Senate 25-15.

Things to Look for 2025 NJ Governor Race

• Ciattarelli v. Sherrill or Murphy v Trump?: Sherrill has made opposition to President Trump a cornerstone of her campaign. Ciattarelli has stated Sherrill is Murphy’s third term. Trump’s unfavorable ratings are higher than his favorable at 47%-52% and recent actions concerning the Gateway Tunnell and food stamps are seen as hurting Ciattarelli. However, Murphy is upside down also at 43%-53%.
• Gender Gap: Women break by almost 20 points for Sherrill and men do the same for Ciattarelli. Whichever sex is the majority of the turnout may play a role in deciding a close race.
• Democratic Party Base - Progressives: While Sherrill won the primary easily the total of the second and third place finishers, both progressives, exceeded Sherrills total. Sherrill has been the party establishment’s preferred candidate for years, will progressives turnout for her?
• Republican Party Base – MAGA: Prior to 2025 Ciattarelli had not run with the support of Trump. Once Trump endorsed him it turned what was thought to be a competitive 2025 Republican primary into a romp with Ciatatrelli winning 67% in a three-person race. Ciattarelli points out he lost in 2021 by 85,000 votes, and 400,000 Republicans didn’t vote. Will the base turnout for him?
• Early Voting: Democrats historically turnout more pre-election day voters than Republicans do. And that is the case again this year. However, Republicans are holding their own in 2025.
• Sherrill Big Margin Counties: She needs big wins in Hudson, Essex, Camden, Union and Middlesex. Essex can provide a net 100,000 votes. The Essex County Democratic Chairman, LeRoy Jones is also the State Democratic Party Chairman. Don’t just watch Newark votes, watch East Orange, Jones’ hometown. There are highly competitive mayoral races in Jersey City and Hoboken which will drive turnout in the heavily Democratic County, along with Brian Stack, State Senator/Union City Mayor who can deliver 10,000+ vote margin of victory. Ciattarelli has won the endorsement of North Bergen Mayor Nick Sacco, a rival of Stack. Chris Christie won Middlesex County both times. Even if he doesn’t win these counties, holding down his loss is important for Ciattarelli.
• Ciattarelli Big Margin Counties: Ocean, Monmouth, Gloucester, Morris. To counterbalance big margins from Essex and Hudson Ciatatrelli needs comparable margins out of Ocean and Monmouth.  Ocean is not only the most Republican County in NJ but Republican margins in statewide elections are increasing. This is driven in part by the exploding Orthodox Jewish population based in Lakewood. The local Jewish Religious Elders have endorsed Ciatatrelli. They endorsed Murphy in 2021 but Ciattarelli still won the town and county. In 2021 Ciattarelli flipped Gloucester to Republican. The South Jersey Democrats won’t be surprised this time. Just as Ciattarelli “wins” by losing close, the same is true for Sherrill here. And then Morris County. In 2021 Ciattarelli almost doubled the 2017 Republican margin. Although the county is becoming bluer at the Presidential level, and Sherrill represents most of the county in Congress and is well liked. Ciattarelli chose popular Morris County Sherriff Jim Gannon as his running mate, in part for his law enforcement bona fides, and in part his electoral ones.
• Bergen Battlefield: At nearly one million Bergen County’s population is the largest in New Jersey and larger than that of five states: South Dakota, North Dakota, Alaska, Vermont and Wyoming. Republicans haven’t won Bergen County in a statewide election since Christie’s 2013 blow-out win when he won every county except Hudson and Essex. At the county level Republicans dominated here for decades but beginning since 2002 the Democrats have easily controlled. Unlike the powerhouse Democratic counties: Hudson, Essex, Middlesex, and Camden, where wins come easily, Bergen is more competitive. Republicans inability to break through stems in part from infighting in the party but also the strength of the Bergen County Democratic Party, run with precision by Chairman Paul Juliano. Other counties may provide bigger margins for Democrats statewide, but none are routinely as competitive as Bergen. As of September 30, 2025 the county Republicans had $50,000 in the bank, county Democrats $1.1 million. If Ciattarelli wins Bergen it will because of the sheer force of his relentless campaigning.

Things to Look for 2025 NJ General Assembly Race

There are 40 legislative districts in New Jersey, with one Senator and two Assembly members each. With a thirteen-seat advantage it is unlikely control will flip to the Republicans even if Ciattarelli wins the Governor’s race.

Conventional wisdom says if Ciatrelli wins the Governor’s race it is anticipated to be close although his coattails in 2021 flipped a number of legislative sets. A Sherrill win could be close or big. If she were to have a large enough margin there are seats the Democrats believe they can pick up.

Click here for a map of the 40 Legislative Districts.

• Districts 3 and 4 are both based in Gloucester County currently held by Democrats. In 2021 both of the District 3 seats flipped when Ciattarelli won big in Gloucester. The seats flipped back to Democrats in 2023. District 4 was made more Republican in 2023 after new legislative districts were put in place. However, based on the District 4 Senate R candidate’s drag on the ticket, Republicans could not pick up either seat.
• District 8 is Burlington County based and includes a few towns in Atlantic County, notably Hammonton. The district is one of two in the state with an Assembly member from each party, Republican Mike Torrissi and Democrat Andrea Katz. The 2025 election is a rematch of 2023 when incumbent Republican Brandon Umba lost unexpectedly to Katz and her running mate Anthony Angelozzi came in ahead of Umba. Less than 500 votes separated all four candidates. Torrissi and Angelozzi both hail from Hamilton which holds sway for a district that is Burlington based. A big Ciattarelli win in Atlantic Couty, and Hammonton in particular, could decide this race.
• District 11 is entirely Monmouth County based. It has flipped several times recently: 2019 – 2 Ds, 2021- 2Rs, 2023- 2Ds. Monmouth is Ciattarelli country, he doubled the Republican margin of victory from 2017 to 2021. His 2021 win carried in two Republicans. Additionally, on the ballot in Monmouth in 2025 are the popular county clerk and commissioners. This should be an easy R win. However, if Rs win it will be close for one reason, Democrat Senator Vin Gopal. In 2017 he flipped the Senate seat Democrat and in 2021 the voters of this district voted for Ciattarelli for Governor, crossed the ballot to the Democrat column and voted for Gopal for Senate, then back to Republican for Assembly. Gopal is a legislative, political, and fundraising powerhouse. He has the progressive bona fides to represent Asbury Park and Long Branch and the business acumen to represent Shrewsbury and Freehold Township. The incumbent Democrats Margie Donlon and Luanne Peterpaul have outraised their opponents 10:1. Their most effective ad is the one that features Gopal.
• District 21 spans wealthy suburbs in Union, Morris, and Somerset Counties. The district is trending blue and Sherrill should do well here. Incumbent Republicans Nancy Munoz and Michele Matiskouids are the most vulnerable Republican incumbents on election night. The Democrats are both well-funded and have run strong campaigns.
• District 25 spans western Morris and West Milford in Passaic County. Historically Republican the district has gotten closer in recent years and includes strong Democrat towns like Morris Township, Madison, Mendham, and Morristown. Incumbent Republicans Aura Dunn and Christian Barranco are well regarded. They need big wins in Rockaway Twp. Jefferson, Randolph and West Milford, especially if Sherrill wins Morris County.
• District 38 is located in central Bergen County anchored by Praramus, Fair Lawn and Bergenfield. For years it’s been deemed competitive, but Republicans haven’t won in 20 years. The incumbent Democrats are from two of the anchor towns: Lisa Swain, Fair Lawn and Chris Tully Bergenifeld. In 2021 and 2024 Ciattarelli and Trump lost Bergen County by only 15,000 votes. A strong Ciattarelli showing in Bergen could put these seats in play. If this district is in play tomorrow night, it is bad news for Sherrill statewide.
• District 39 is the top half of Bergen County from Alpine to Mahwah and Oakland. Long a Republican stronghold margins have tightened here in recent years. Incumbents Bob Auth and John Azzariti have campaigned aggressively to hold the seats. If this district is in play tomorrow night, it is bad news for Ciattarelli statewide.