NJ Election 2025 Postmortem

November 5, 2025

by Eric DeGesero

Democrat Mikie Sherrill defeated Republican Jack Ciattarelli 56%-43% in the 2025 race for NJ Governor. Going into election night Democrats controlled the NJ General Assembly 52-28. As a result of her strong coattails Democrats picked up at least four seats in the NJ General Assembly with a few races still too close to call. More than three million voters cast ballots for governor, an all-time high.

Sherrill’s win marks the first time the same party has won the governor’s office three times in a row since 1961.

The Framers of the 1947 NJ Constitution decided to have our state’s elections in odd number years so the national environment would not dominate state level issues. In 2025 everything is a national issue. And the national issue was President Donald Trump.

Trump loomed over the election beginning in the primary when Ciattarelli had to convince the MAGA base to support after his previous distancing of himself from the President. Trump endorsed Ciattarelli in the primary and he won it with 67%. Sherrill made clear in her primary night victory speech that opposition to Trump would be a hallmark of her campaign.

While each candidate threw a haymaker at the other – Sherrill that Ciattarelli profited from opioid deaths and Ciattarelli that Sherrill’s military record was tainted by a cheating scandal – neither had more than a few days legs. Everything reverted to Trump. In the last month of the campaign Trump as an issue was amplified by the federal government shutdown, cancellation of the Gateway Tunnel project, and the cessation of SNAP benefits.

The most telling result in last night’s exit polling was that two-thirds of the electorate was dissatisfied with the direction of the country and three-quarters of them voted for Sherrill.

In 2021 Ciattarelli won Atlantic, Cumberland, Gloucester, and Morris Counties. Sherrill flipped all four. She is the first Democrat to win Morris County since Brendan Byrne in 1973 in the wake of Watergate. She cut 20,000 votes off Ciattarelli’s 2021 margin in Monmouth, a fire wall Republican county. And Sherrill overperformed Murphy’s 2021 showing in the following stronghold Democratic Counties: Camden +28k, Burlington +25k, Essex +35k, Hudson +23k, Middlesex +38k, Union +28k.

Republicans hoped that Trump’s closer showing in 2024 in New Jersey relative to 2020, was a precursor to good things in 2025. It was not. Trump voters come out for Trump, not those he endorses. Democrats pointed out that even with Trump’s improved showing in 2024 he still lost the state by 250,000 votes.

Sherrill’s win was large enough to have coattails in the election for NJ General Assembly.  Going into the evening Democrats controlled 52-28. As of this morning Democrats retained every seat and have flipped four with two too close to call.

·     District 2 (Atlantic): Incumbent Republican Don Guardian won. Democrats Maureen Rowan and Joann Famularo and incumbent Republican Claire Swift are within 300 votes of one another for the second seat.  

·     District 8 (Burlington/Atlantic): The district is one of two in the state with an Assembly member from each party, Republican Mike Torrissi and Democrat Andrea Katz. The 2025 election was a rematch of 2023 when incumbent Republican Brandon Umba lost unexpectedly to Katz and her running mate Anthony Angelozzi came in ahead of Umba. Less than 500 votes separated all four candidates. This time it wasn’t close. Torrissi came in 3,000 votes behind and Umba 5,000.

·     District 11 (Monmouth): Republicans had hoped to flip these two seats back to their column as this was seen as a competitive district in a Republican county. The race wasn’t close. Incumbent Democrats Margie Donlon and Luann Peterpaul won by 9,000 votes. Sherrill shaved 20,000 votes off Ciattarelli 2021 Monmouth win. All aided by strong fundraising and their affiliation with Senator Vin Gopal, one of the best politicians in the state.

·     District 21: (Union/Somerset/Morris): Incumbent Republicans Nancy Munoz and Michele Matiskouids were the most vulnerable Republican incumbents going into election night. Sherrill won all three counties that make up the district and challengers Andrew Macurdy and Vinnie Kearney ran competitive and well-funded campaigns, winning by 5,000 votes.

·     District 25 (Morri/Passaic County) Incumbent Republicans Aura Dunn and Christian Barranco faced a challenge not only from their opponents Marisa Sweeney and Steven Pylypchuk  but also Sherrill’s strong showing in Morris County. Dunn held the seat, but Sweeney leads Barranco by 245 votes for the second seat.

Public opinion polls of the “horse race” were of no value. All had a close race tightening in the closing days. 100% wrong. Sherrill won by 13% - over 400,000 votes - and the race was called less than 90 minutes after the voting polls closed.

The next NJ election will be 2027 when the Senate and Assembly are both on the ballot.